China, ASEAN Miss Deadline for South China Sea Pact Despite Progress
At a Glance
China and ASEAN will not finish their South China Sea code of conduct this year as agreed.
Diplomats say about 80% of the text has been provisionally settled.
Talks will continue next year under Singapore's chairmanship.
China and Southeast Asian nations have made progress on a South China Sea pact but will not conclude decades of negotiations this year, three regional diplomats said Wednesday.
Key Statements and Focus Area
Analyst on Deterrence: "Restraining great powers takes a lot of effort. We cannot be a one-trick pony as a country. You need to have all the tools, whether it's a code of conduct, whether you bring a case against China, or whether you increase your military spending." — Julio Amador III, Manila-based geopolitical analyst.
Focus Area: The unfinished code of conduct for the South China Sea and the sticking points that remain.
Speaking anonymously because they were not authorized to discuss the talks, the three senior diplomats said that after the final round last month, about 80% of the paragraphs had been provisionally agreed.
The remaining obstacles are the geographic scope of the accord, the definition of sensitive terms, and whether it should be legally binding.
The Philippines, which chaired ASEAN this year, held at least monthly meetings to give negotiators more time, and China and Malaysia, which oversee the bloc's relations with Beijing, jointly led at least 10 major rounds.
Negotiations will now carry over to 2027, when ASEAN's leadership rotates to Singapore.
The status of the talks and continuing incidents in the waterway will be high on the agenda when ASEAN leaders hold their annual summit in Manila starting this weekend, followed by meetings with leaders of Asian and Western nations, including the United States and China.
FYI
China and ASEAN began negotiating the code of conduct in 2005 and agreed in 2023 to speed up talks and finish by this year.
China, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan have long-running territorial disputes in the waterway, a key global trade route believed to hold undersea oil and gas.
Clashes between Chinese and Philippine forces have escalated in recent years, and Washington has said it is obligated to defend the Philippines, its oldest treaty ally in Asia, if its forces come under armed attack, while Beijing tells the US to stay away from what it calls a purely Asian dispute.
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