At a Glance

• Washington alerted Baghdad of a planned U.S. strike on Iran in the coming days.

• Prime Minister al-Zaidi warned domestic armed groups that intervening will face legal consequences.

• Major resistance factions refused to surrender their weapons or accept state-supervised compromises.

• The Al-Shib border crossing with Iran was closed over tracking concerns regarding small "shadow groups."

• The government ordered the closure of the Houthi office in Iraq and the deportation of its members.

Channel8 has learned that Washington has alerted Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi to a potential strike on Iran, prompting al-Zaidi to warn domestic armed groups against any intervention. This warning comes amid an ongoing impasse as major factions, including the Nujaba Movement and Kata'ib Hezbollah, remain unwilling to surrender their weapons 

Key Statements and Focus Area

• A political source close to the Coordination Framework revealed to Channel8 that al-Zaidi informed leaders of the bloc that the U.S. administration notified them of a planned strike on Iran in the coming days.

• The source stressed that ongoing discussions regarding the collection of weapons under state control have yielded no practical progress.

Speaking to Channel8, the source noted that al-Zaidi emphasized that if armed groups enter the conflict, they will be confronted according to the law. However, Hadi al-Amiri, the Secretary-General of the Badr Organization, expressed reservations regarding al-Zaidi’s statements.

Some leaders within the Coordination Framework dismissed the likelihood of these groups targeting neighboring countries in support of Tehran.

This is due to the anticipated repercussions on al-Zaidi’s government, which could face heightened regional and international pressure.

The source told Channel8 that the entire Coordination Framework supports al-Zaidi’s government, and there is no political will to pull Iraq back into conflict.

On the same issue, The Cradle reported that the White House administration informed Ali Zaidi of its intention to strike Iran in the coming days.

According to Iraqi officials, Washington issued a stern warning against Iraqi interference, stating that any involvement by Iraq would heavily impact the country's political system and state stability.

Regarding state control over armed groups' weapons, the source confirmed that both the Nujaba Movement and Kata'ib Hezbollah remain unwilling to surrender their weapons, despite a prior agreement made before September 30 requiring all groups to do so.

According to the source, armed groups proposed keeping their missiles and drones under government supervision, but the Prime Minister firmly rejected the compromise and reaffirmed his commitment to restricting all weapons to state authority.

Meanwhile, Nujaba Movement official Abdul Qader Karbalai countered that their stance against participating in the political process remains completely unyielding. He emphasized that terms like "collection, handover, or disarmament" do not exist within the vocabulary of the Islamic Resistance.

The closure of the al-Shib border crossing with Iran has also drawn protests from resistance groups. According to Channel8's information, resistance factions are preparing to protest against the closure, though a date has not yet been set.

Civil organizations and activists had planned to protest on October 25 to commemorate the October 2019 demonstrations. However, they decided to postpone their movement to avoid their objectives overlapping with those of the resistance groups.

According to information, the closure of the al-Shib crossing is not solely due to the technical reasons cited by the government, but is driven by security concerns over the return of "shadow groups." 

These are small factions consisting of 5 to 10 individuals, suspected of being utilized for attacks that are difficult to trace.

Meanwhile, the Al-Hurra channel reported that Prime Minister Ali Zaidi has decided to close the Houthi office in Iraq and deport Houthi figures currently in the country. 

Commenting on this, the Channel8 source stated that while the number of Houthis in Iraq was high during the war against ISIS and the broader U.S.-Israeli conflict involving Iran, their current presence does not exceed seven individuals, none of whom are active or influential.

FYI

The administration of Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi operates under a complex political arrangement backed by the Coordination Framework coalition. 

While the coalition seeks to maintain state stability, it faces internal friction between official government policy and the strategic priorities of individual factions. 

The official stance of the Iraqi executive branch remains firmly committed to national sovereignty, holding that decisions on foreign policy belong exclusively to state institutions. 

This has complicated the government's long-standing security initiative to enforce a complete monopoly of weapons under formal state authority. Major factions like Harakat al-Nujaba and Kata'ib Hezbollah have resisted full disarmament, viewing their arsenals as integral to the regional Islamic Resistance. 

Prime Minister al-Zaidi has subsequently rejected intermediate compromises, such as allowing armed groups to retain drones and missiles under loose government supervision. 

Geopolitically, Iraq continues to pursue a policy of neutrality to avoid being drawn into direct military confrontations between Washington and Tehran. 

Consequently, recent measures like closing the al-Shib border crossing reflect preventative strategies designed to insulate the state's political and financial systems from regional escalation.

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